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  • A Model of a Systemic Bank Run | Becker-Friedman Institute Research Respository
    site admin for help if this error continues User login CNetID or Username Password Request new password Log in A Model of a Systemic Bank Run This paper provides a model of the view that the 2008 financial crisis is reminiscent of a bank run focusing on six stylized key features In particular core financial institutions have invested their funds in asset backed securities rather than committed to long term projects in distress these can potentially be sold to a large pool of outside investors at steep discounts I consider two different motives for outside investors and their interaction with banks trading asset backed securities uncertainty aversion versus adverse selection I shall argue that the version with uncertainty averse investors is more consistent with the stylized facts than the adverse selection perspective in the former the crisis deepens the larger the market share of distressed core banks while a run becomes less likely instead as a result in the adverse selection version Therefore the outright purchase of troubled assets by the government at prices above current market prices may both alleviate the financial crises as well as provide tax payers with returns above those for safe securities Authors Harald Uhlig

    Original URL path: http://econresearch.uchicago.edu/content/model-systemic-bank-run (2015-06-03)
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  • A neural network model of the structure and dynamics of human personality | Becker-Friedman Institute Research Respository
    admin for help if this error continues User login CNetID or Username Password Request new password Log in A neural network model of the structure and dynamics of human personality We present a neural network model that aims to bridge the historical gap between dynamic and structural approaches to personality The model integrates work on the structure of the trait lexicon the neurobiology of personality temperament goal based models of personality and an evolutionary analysis of motives It is organized in terms of two overarching motivational systems an approach and an avoidance system as well as a general disinhibition and constraint system Each overarching motivational system influences more specific motives Traits are modeled in terms of differences in the sensitivities of the motivational systems the baseline activation of specific motives and inhibitory strength The result is a motive based neural network model of personality based on research about the structure and neurobiology of human personality The model provides an account of personality dynamics and person situation interactions and suggests how dynamic processing approaches and dispositional structural approaches can be integrated in a common framework Authors Stephen Read University of Southern California Brian M Monroe University of Southern California Aaron L

    Original URL path: http://econresearch.uchicago.edu/content/neural-network-model-structure-and-dynamics-human-personality (2015-06-03)
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  • A New Look on Early Child Care and Education (ECCE) as a Joint Responsibility | Becker-Friedman Institute Research Respository
    site admin for help if this error continues User login CNetID or Username Password Request new password Log in A New Look on Early Child Care and Education ECCE as a Joint Responsibility Improving the quality of Early Childhood Education has been a priority in Brazil but it is still a challenging issue to be faced The fact that an indefinite number of institutions exist on the borders of the educational system the lack of systematic supervision and incomplete official statistics are only a few of the challenges The Millennium Fund for Early Childhood Education has been developed to directly improve the quality of educators who work with Brazil s most socially vulnerable students An innovative model of joint responsibility utilizing public and private sections in Porte Alegre Rio Grande del Sul has resulted in the implementation of a social technology called Educational Board This experimental model has been carried out in municipalities of four southern states of Brazil over the past five years This article addresses the approach developed at the Educational Boards which focused on in service professional development and network capacity building the program s impact on improving Early Child Care and Education ECCE in Brazil as

    Original URL path: http://econresearch.uchicago.edu/content/new-look-early-child-care-and-education-ecce-joint-responsibility (2015-06-03)
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  • A New Test of Borrowing Constraints for Education | Becker-Friedman Institute Research Respository
    site admin for help if this error continues User login CNetID or Username Password Request new password Log in A New Test of Borrowing Constraints for Education We discuss a simple model in which parents and children make investments in the children s education investments for other purposes and parents can transfer cash to their children We show that for an identifiable set of parent child pairs parents will rationally under invest in their child s education For these parent child pairs additional financial aid will increase educational attainment The model highlights an important feature of higher education finance the expected family contribution EFC that is based on income assets and other factors The EFC is neither legally guaranteed nor universally offered Our model identifies the set of families that are disproportionately likely to not provide their full EFC Using a common proxy for financial aid we show in data from the Health and Retirement Study that financial aid increases the educational attainment of children whose families are disproportionately likely to under invest in education Financial aid has no effect on the educational attainment of children in other families The theory and empirical evidence identifies a set of children who

    Original URL path: http://econresearch.uchicago.edu/content/new-test-borrowing-constraints-education (2015-06-03)
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  • A personal touch: text message reminders and loan repayment | Becker-Friedman Institute Research Respository
    in your browser s location bar to begin with https instead of http Please contact site admin for help if this error continues User login CNetID or Username Password Request new password Log in A personal touch text message reminders and loan repayment We report the results of an experiment sending weekly text message reminders to microfinance clients in two rural banks in the Philippines on late payment and loan default We test three treatments a personalization treatment a framing treatment and a timing treatment We do not find an overall treatment effect Rather we find that the content of the message is important The personalization treatment a message that is signed from account officer reduces the probability a client makes a late weekly payment by 20 compared to the control group and there is a 24 higher chance that the full balance of the loan is paid at the loan maturity date We do not find any effects from a framing treatment or from a timing treatment and so the results are not purely due to a reminder effect We draw two main conclusions firstly there is evidence of ex post inefficiencies in the credit market Our second conclusion

    Original URL path: http://econresearch.uchicago.edu/content/personal-touch-text-message-reminders-and-loan-repayment (2015-06-03)
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  • A Pyrrhic Victory? Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk | Becker-Friedman Institute Research Respository
    for help if this error continues User login CNetID or Username Password Request new password Log in A Pyrrhic Victory Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk We show that financial sector bailouts and sovereign credit risk are intimately linked A bailout benefits the economy by ameliorating the under investment problem of the financial sector However increasing taxation of the non financial sector to fund the bailout may be inefficient since it weakens its incentive to invest decreasing growth Instead the sovereign may choose to fund the bailout by diluting existing government bondholders resulting in a deterioration of the sovereign s creditworthiness This deterioration feeds back to the financial sector reducing the value of its guarantees and existing bond holdings as well as increasing its sensitivity to future sovereign shocks We provide empirical evidence for this two way feedback between financial and sovereign credit risk using data on the credit default swaps CDS of the Eurozone countries and their banks for 2007 11 We show that the announcement of financial sector bailouts was associated with an immediate unprecedented widening of sovereign CDS spreads and narrowing of bank CDS spreads however post bailouts there emerged a significant co movement between bank CDS

    Original URL path: http://econresearch.uchicago.edu/content/pyrrhic-victory-bank-bailouts-and-sovereign-credit-risk (2015-06-03)
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  • A Real Options Perspective on the Future of the Euro | Becker-Friedman Institute Research Respository
    User login CNetID or Username Password Request new password Log in A Real Options Perspective on the Future of the Euro A break up of the Eurozone is regarded as inevitable by some This will be a costly and irreversible decision in conditions of continuing uncertainty therefore amenable to analysis in the real options framework We do so by solving as an optimal stopping n dimensional problem with 1 country

    Original URL path: http://econresearch.uchicago.edu/content/real-options-perspective-future-euro (2015-06-03)
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  • A Registry of International Early Childhood Development Research: Essential Infrastructure Supports for Knowledge Management, Collaboration, and Efficient Translation of Science to Practice | Becker-Friedman Institute Research Respository
    for help if this error continues User login CNetID or Username Password Request new password Log in A Registry of International Early Childhood Development Research Essential Infrastructure Supports for Knowledge Management Collaboration and Efficient Translation of Science to Practice To design studies that fill gaps in existing knowledge and build on innovations in research and practice international early childhood researchers studying interventions and policies targeting early childhood development ECD need to sort quickly through the existing evidence Researchers have no systematic resources or tools to manage the vast amount of existing knowledge document which interventions have been tried in a given country region and support collaboration among groups of researchers with similar interests Duplication of effort within and across countries and regions is a drain on the limited research funds available and slows down the translation of intervention science to practice The publication bias toward studies that find significant results also impedes knowledge development and transfer There is no way to learn about what has been tried in international ECD intervention programs and failed to affect targeted outcomes Inefficiencies based on lack of systems that document scientific progress impede the provision of effective interventions to children in need An international

    Original URL path: http://econresearch.uchicago.edu/content/registry-international-early-childhood-development-research-essential-infrastructure (2015-06-03)
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