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  • State's economic growth slowed considerably at end of 2015 | Institute of Government and Public Affairs
    fell to 105 5 in December from its 106 1 level in November This is not only the lowest reading all year but the lowest reading since March 2013 The Illinois economy is still growing as the reading is above 100 the dividing line between growth and decline However this reading suggests that the state s economy slowed considerably in the last part of 2015 The Flash Index began 2015 strong in the high 106 low 107 range and then hovered steadily around 106 5 all summer In the fall and winter the index dipped indicating a slow down This suggests that the long slow recovery from the 2007 2009 recession continues to be disappointing said J Fred Giertz who compiles the index for the Institute of Government and Public Affairs Another possible factor contributing the slow down the political showdown over the budget While the decline of the index this month cannot be definitively attributed to the state s ongoing budget stalemate it is likely that it is beginning to have an impact Giertz said State unemployment ticked upward by 0 3 percentage points to 5 7 percent falling further behind the national 5 0 percent rate Nevertheless the Illinois unemployment rate is still below the 6 2 percent rate of a year ago National GDP grew at a modest 2 0 percent rate during the third quarter After adjustments for the new individual and corporate tax rates corporate and sales tax receipts were down moderately while individual income tax revenues were up in real terms from the same month last year The slight decline in real sales tax revenues suggests modest holiday sales The Flash Index is a weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings consumer spending and personal income Tax receipts from corporate income personal

    Original URL path: http://igpa.uillinois.edu/flash-index/2015/december2015 (2016-02-17)
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  • Research Spotlight: Racial residential segregation and the housing search process | Institute of Government and Public Affairs
    In an article in Springer s Population Research and Policy Review Krysan and colleagues Esther Havekes and Michael Bader contribute the first data that examine where people say they want to live where they search and where they end up living The results reveal once again that there is much more to segregation than individuals simply choosing where to live Study Approach The researchers analyzed a subsample N 382 of the respondents in the 2004 2005 Chicago Area Study to understand the matches or mismatches between preferences about ideal neighborhood racial composition search locations and neighborhood outcomes The data came from a random sample of people aged 21 and older who live in households in Cook County which includes the city of Chicago who were interviewed in their homes between August 2004 and August 2005 The survey touched on a variety of topics related to neighborhoods preferences and housing searches including 1 a measure asking people to create a neighborhood with their ideal racial ethnic composition 2 a map showing 41 communities throughout the Chicago metropolitan area that they used to identify communities where they searched during the previous ten years and 3 their current residence so that the researchers could use U S Census data to determine the racial ethnic composition of their current neighborhood Results The researchers found that whites blacks and Latinos all prefer to live in diverse neighborhoods Whites report a desire to live in a neighborhood with the largest percentage of their own group Yet at 47 percent white respondents ideal neighborhood in this study is not quite majority white Blacks and Latinos also created ideal neighborhoods where their own group was the largest But at 37 and 32 percent respectively their own group was also not the numerical majority All groups say they want to live in diverse neighborhoods But they don t end up doing so Although whites report wanting to live in a neighborhood where their group is not quite the majority they end up searching in neighborhoods that are on average 68 percent white Perhaps not surprisingly their current neighborhoods reflect the fact that they searched in these communities the average white searcher in this study lives in a neighborhood that is 74 percent white In contrast black and Latino residents search in areas that match their desired diverse neighborhood However they end up living in neighborhoods in which they are the majority group Blacks search in neighborhoods that are 40 percent black but end up in neighborhoods that are 66 percent black Latinos search in neighborhoods that are 32 percent Latino but end up in neighborhoods that are 51 percent Latino The figure below illustrates these trends Why is this the case Logistic regression analyses reveal that mismatches are associated with both a lack of information and inadequate finances but also may be due to socially desirable responding for whites in particular Yet this is just the tip of the iceberg The question is what happens between the search and

    Original URL path: http://igpa.uillinois.edu/content/research-spotlight-racial-residential-segregation-and-housing-search-process (2016-02-17)
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  • Flash Index shows economic growth is slowing in Illinois | Institute of Government and Public Affairs
    is slowing in Illinois The U of I Flash Index fell to 105 8 in October from its 106 0 level in September This is the third month of decline for the index and its lowest level since April 2013 This pattern of decline in the index does not mean that the Illinois economy is declining The index remains above 100 the dividing line between economic expansion and contraction The recent declines indicate that the Illinois economy continues to grow but at a slower rate said J Fred Giertz who compiles the index for the University of Illinois Institute of Government and Public Affairs This is consistent with a relative slow rate of growth for the national economy that grew at only 1 5 percent in the third quarter after a stronger 3 5 percent reading for the second quarter Despite the lower reading the state unemployment rate continued to decline falling to 5 4 percent a post recession low and only slightly above the national level of 5 1 percent This is encouraging since the unemployment rate remained stubbornly high during the early years of the recovery from the 2007 2009 recession Both the U S and Illinois economies continue to face a number of challenges and uncertainties Giertz said These include a slowing world economy and the state s continuing budget impasse After adjustments for the new individual and corporate tax rates that fell in January corporate tax receipts were higher individual income receipts were down and sales tax revenues were virtually unchanged in real terms from the same month last year The Flash Index is a weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings consumer spending and personal income Tax receipts from corporate income personal income and retail sales are adjusted for inflation before growth rates

    Original URL path: http://igpa.uillinois.edu/flash-index/2015/october-2015 (2016-02-17)
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  • Flash Index dips in September | Institute of Government and Public Affairs
    Seminar 2009 Seminar Study Centers Office of Public Leadership Regional Economics Applications Laboratory Flash Index dips in September The U of I Flash Index fell to 106 0 in September from its 106 5 level in August The index remains in the expansion range since the reading is well above 100 the dividing line between growth and decline The index has fluctuated between 106 0 and 107 2 since May of 2013 It is too early to determine whether the decline is an indicator of a slowing economy or simply a one time blip said J Fred Giertz who compiles the Flash Index for the University of Illinois Institute of Government and Public Affairs The economy has provided mixed signs over the last few months Giertz said Second quarter growth was stronger than originally reported and consumer spending shows no signs of fading bolstered by continuing reductions in unemployment which is now back to pre recession levels The world economy struggling with problems in China and Europe appears weaker than the U S economy and the stronger dollar has begun to have an impact on U S exports The continuing budget impasse in Illinois also clouds the state picture Giertz said After adjustments for the new individual and corporate tax rates and despite the decline in the index all three components of the index the individual income tax corporate tax and sales tax revenues were up slightly in real terms from the same month last year The Flash Index is a weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings consumer spending and personal income Tax receipts from corporate income personal income and retail sales are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated The growth rate for each component is then calculated for the 12 month period using data

    Original URL path: http://igpa.uillinois.edu/flash-index/2015/september-2015 (2016-02-17)
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  • Illinois' third major deficit: Infrastructure funding | Institute of Government and Public Affairs
    to reduce its debt burden to be more in line with other states the infrastructure funding deficit may be as large as 46 billion The report titled All bad things come in threes Illinois third type of deficit Infrastructure funding examines how the state s debt service structure schedule of principal and interest payments on its current bonds cannot absorb the state s needed new infrastructure debt In summary the analysis is as follows Estimates of the state s annual future infrastructure needs are substantial ranging from 4 2 billion at the lowest to 8 4 billion at the highest and centering on 6 3 billion base case The study calculates how much new revenue the state will need to address its annual infrastructure funding needs over a 10 year debt financed capital program Under the base case of 6 3 billion in annual bond financed infrastructure funding the state s infrastructure funding deficit is almost 18 billion assuming the state maintains its current high debt burden If the state wanted to reduce its debt burden to a level more in line with other states the state s infrastructure funding deficit is almost 32 billion If the state were to invest in the lower estimate 4 2 billion annually of infrastructure needs and maintain its current high debt burden the infrastructure deficit is 6 billion For the higher estimate 8 4 billion annually the deficit is 31 billion Assuming the state wants to reduce its debt burden the lower and higher infrastructure funding deficit estimates are 19 billion and 46 billion respectively Further complicating matters the state s recent fiscal struggles may continue to have a negative effect on the state s credit rating This will likely exacerbate the infrastructure funding deficit as interest rates on future state bonds will

    Original URL path: http://igpa.uillinois.edu/content/illinois-third-major-deficit-infrastructure-funding (2016-02-17)
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  • Wind energy provides opportunity for Illinois | Institute of Government and Public Affairs
    relying on coal fired power plants Illinois can build natural gas plants or invest in renewable technology like solar geothermal or wind The state s geography and climate give Illinois a special advantage in the use of wind power A policy brief published today by the University of Illinois Institute of Government and Public Affairs compares the cost of production for wind energy and other comparable sources and predictions for future costs in the U S and Illinois It also takes a look at considerations for placement of wind parks Both globally and in the U S fossil fuels still constitute the largest share of energy capacity Wind energy capacity has grown steadily over the past eight years with an average annual growth of 46 3 percent internationally Other renewables such as hydroelectric and solar have also grown steadily Trends in electricity production costs or the cost of making electricity including fuel and labor show oil prices generally increasing over time so oil fired power capacity has fallen In turn production costs of coal power have increased slight as well so total capacity in Illinois for renewables has increased in the past decade Since 2005 wind power has joined nuclear power as a second significant source of renewable energy in Illinois The future cost of producing wind energy is lowest in the Midwest Illinois has strong winds near demand centers like Chicago and it has geography conducive to wind parks Three possible windmill locations include onshore wind parks which is currently the most popular location offshore Lake Michigan sites and nearshore Lake Michigan sites An offshore site shows promise as the state established the Lake Michigan Offshore Wind Energy Advisory Council to explore the benefits and challenges of such a project However no offshore wind parks have been built in

    Original URL path: http://igpa.uillinois.edu/content/wind-energy-provides-opportunity-illinois (2016-02-17)
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  • Flash remains steady despite stock market volatility | Institute of Government and Public Affairs
    Regional Economics Applications Laboratory Flash remains steady despite stock market volatility The U of I Flash Index remained steady in August despite volatility in the national and international stock markets The index fell slightly to 106 5 in August from its 106 6 level in July The index has remained in a narrow range for more than two years reflecting steady but unspectacular growth The basic indicators of the national and Illinois economy were strong with low levels of unemployment and inflation In fact inflation has been below the target set by the Federal Reserve which has complicated its goal of eventually raising interest rates Second quarter GDP growth was recently revised upward to 3 7 percent after a slow first quarter To date the ongoing state budget impasse has had no clear effect on the state economy However there is considerable concern that the turmoil in the financial markets related to the Chinese economy may spill over into the U S economy It is interesting to note that while China is considered an economic threat by many politicians a weakening Chinese economy is now creating problems for the U S and world economy said J Fred Giertz professor emeritus at the University of Illinois Institute of Government and Public Affairs Giertz compiles the Flash Index each month for the institute After adjustments for the new individual and corporate tax rates individual income tax and corporate tax receipts and sales tax revenue were up slightly in real terms from the same month last year The Flash Index is a weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings consumer spending and personal income Tax receipts from corporate income personal income and retail sales are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated The growth rate for each component is then

    Original URL path: http://igpa.uillinois.edu/flash-index/2015/august2015 (2016-02-17)
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  • Research | Institute of Government and Public Affairs
    May The index ended the fiscal year marginally above the 106 2 level registered in July of last year Expected impacts of climate change in Illinois Illinois needs to prepare now for the coming changes associated with climate change according to IGPA s Climate Change Policy Initiative Flash Index ticks upward again in April The Illinois economy continued to show growth and increasing strength in April according to a monthly measurement by the University of Illinois The Flash Index which measures the economy based upon state tax receipts reached 107 1 for the month up from 107 0 in March Illinois economy springs into gear The Flash Index reached 107 in March indicating continued strengthening of the Illinois economy After more than a year hovering in the 106 0 106 8 range the Flash Index hit its highest point since January 2014 The index reached 107 for only the third time since the 2007 2009 recession Policy Brief Tax methods to shore up Illinois infrastructure The state tax on gasoline has been shrinking as a source of revenue for maintenance of Illinois infrastructure over the past twenty years According to a new policy brief PDF released by the University of Illinois Institute of Government and Public Affairs a large gap exists between total tax revenue and total highway spending Flash Index signifies consistent economic growth The Flash Index fell slightly to 106 6 in February from its 106 8 level in January The index remains well above 100 the dividing line between growth and decline This reflects continuing growth in the Illinois economy Combining multiple types of child care Policy conversations sometimes treat child care as an either or choice between two broad types of care home based and center based A recent study by IGPA expert Rachel Gordon and

    Original URL path: http://igpa.uillinois.edu/igpa-research?page=1 (2016-02-17)
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