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  • Flash Index plateaus in March at 104.7 | Institute of Government and Public Affairs
    its 104 8 level last month The index has reached a plateau in the 104 6 to 104 9 range the past four months after nearly three years of consistent increases This plateau does not mean that the Illinois economy has stalled because any reading above 100 indicates economic growth said economist J Fred Giertz who compiles the Flash Index for the Institute of Government and Public Affairs However growth is no longer accelerating As the economy continues to grow slowly the state also struggles with unemployment Illinois unemployment rate has recently diverged from the national rate The national rate fell in February to 7 7 percent from its 7 9 percent reading the preceding month However in January Illinois rate increased to 9 5 percent from its 9 0 level It is too early to determine whether this will persist but it is a cause for concern Giertz said Two components of the index sales tax and individual tax receipts were down slightly in real terms compared to the same month last year while corporate income tax receipts experienced strong gains The Flash Index is a weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings consumer spending and personal

    Original URL path: http://igpa.uillinois.edu/flash-index/2013/march (2016-02-17)
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  • Flash Index levels off in February, continuing year-long pattern of painfully slow growth | Institute of Government and Public Affairs
    to 104 8 from its 104 9 level last month After reaching the highest level in almost five and a half years in January the leveling off indicates continued moderate growth in the Illinois economy The Flash Index has made slow progress over the past year Yet the steady increase has been characterized by starts and stops often leveling out for months at a time For example over the summer of 2012 the Flash Index hovered at 102 9 for both July and August see archive here This pattern illustrates the painfully slow nature of the state s economic growth Although unemployment remains high there appears to be growing confidence in the economy said economist J Fred Giertz who compiles the Flash Index for the Institute of Government and Public Affairs This is evidenced by strong stock market gains and revised estimates that indicate modest growth in the fourth quarter of 2012 Two components of the index sales tax and corporate tax receipts experienced gains in real terms compared to the same month last year while individual income tax receipts were down slightly The Flash Index is a weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings consumer spending and

    Original URL path: http://igpa.uillinois.edu/flash-index/2013/february (2016-02-17)
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  • Flash Index continues strong performance in first month of 2013 | Institute of Government and Public Affairs
    Study Centers Office of Public Leadership Regional Economics Applications Laboratory Flash Index continues strong performance in first month of 2013 The U of I Flash Index for January continued its strong performance rising to 104 9 from its 104 6 level last month This is the highest level in almost five and a half years The last time the index saw this level was in August 2007 several months before the Great Recession began The Flash Index has made slow progress since breaking through the 100 level the dividing line between growth and decline in March 2012 The reading for January continues this trend However this month s strong performance of the index runs counter to recently released data that showed the national economy experienced a slight decline in GDP in the last quarter of 2012 This was attributed in part to the effects of hurricane Sandy and a sharp decline in defense spending said economist J Fred Giertz who compiles the Flash Index for the Institute of Government and Public Affairs Neither of these factors had a major impact in Illinois as the state is not a major beneficiary of federal defense spending However there has been considerable optimism about the national economy during January as evidenced by the strong stock market gains for the month Two components of the index individual income tax and corporate tax receipts experienced strong gains in real terms compared to the same month last year while sales tax receipts were down slightly The Flash Index is a weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings consumer spending and personal income Tax receipts from corporate income personal income and retail sales are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated The growth rate for each component is then calculated for the 12 month

    Original URL path: http://igpa.uillinois.edu/flash-index/2013/january (2016-02-17)
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  • U of I Flash Index closes 2012 on a strong note | Institute of Government and Public Affairs
    103 9 level last month This is the highest level since the beginning of the recession in September 2007 The index posted sustained gains in 2012 which began at 98 8 in January and closed at 104 6 The steady albeit slow growth in the Illinois economy should be viewed with cautious optimism for 2013 said economist J Fred Giertz who compiles the Flash Index for the Institute of Government and Public Affairs As has often been noted these gains have not fully reversed the problems of high unemployment and slow growth for this stage of a recovery Giertz said While the Illinois unemployment rate has fallen over a percentage point in the last year it still stands at 8 7 percent one percentage point above the national average of 7 7 percent and extremely high by historical standards All three components of the index individual income tax corporate tax and sales tax receipts were higher in real terms compared to the same month last year with the strongest gains in the corporate sector Sales tax receipts were up only slightly in real terms confirming a modest holiday sales season The Flash Index is a weighted average of Illinois growth

    Original URL path: http://igpa.uillinois.edu/flash-index/2013/december-2012 (2016-02-17)
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  • Flash Index leveled off in November | Institute of Government and Public Affairs
    as the 104 0 reading the previous month After posting a strong increase in October and modest gains for several months prior the November index continues to reflect a painfully slow economic recovery The current recovery from the 2007 2009 recession is the slowest since the Great Depression Statewide unemployment is still well above 8 percent two and a half years since the recovery began Unemployment has been particularly intractable during the recovery said economist J Fred Giertz who compiles the Flash Index for the Institute of Government and Public Affairs Unlike most previous recessions productivity continued to increase during and after the recent recession Because of increased productivity firms have been able to increase output without hiring many additional workers Giertz said This may also account for the high level of corporate profits and the strong rebound of the stock market All three components of the index individual income tax corporate tax and sales tax receipts were slightly higher in real terms compared to the same month last year The increases were much smaller than last month The Flash Index is a weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings consumer spending and personal income Tax receipts from

    Original URL path: http://igpa.uillinois.edu/flash-index/2012/november (2016-02-17)
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  • Flash Index posts strong increase, corresponds with drop in Illinois state-wide unemployment | Institute of Government and Public Affairs
    This strong gain brings the index to its highest level since February 2008 see the full archive here For the past year the Flash Index has only seen modest gains reflecting the slow and steady growth of the Illinois economy October s increase is encouraging as it corresponds with news that the number employed in the state also reached a post recession high during the month The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Illinois fell to 8 8 percent in September from 9 1 percent the previous month and 10 0 percent for the same month last year However these positive signs should be examined cautiously The Illinois rate is still well above the national average of 7 8 percent cautioned economist J Fred Giertz who compiles the Flash Index for the Institute of Government and Public Affairs Even with the recent improvement the unemployment rate remains at a very high level compared to recent recoveries All three components of the index individual income tax corporate tax and sales tax receipts were higher in real terms compared to the same month last year with an especially strong performance by corporate taxes The Flash Index is a weighted average of Illinois growth

    Original URL path: http://igpa.uillinois.edu/flash-index/2012/october (2016-02-17)
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  • Flash Index shows slow recovery, corresponds with national growth rate | Institute of Government and Public Affairs
    Laboratory Flash Index shows slow recovery corresponds with national growth rate The Flash Index for September increased slightly to 103 2 from its 102 9 level in August This continues the pattern of slow steady growth over the last year While the index is at the highest level since March 2008 the pace of recovery from the 2007 2009 recession remains sluggish At similar stages in the recovery from of the prior two recessions the index was more than a point above the current level said economist J Fred Giertz who compiles the Flash Index for the Institute of Government and Public Affairs We are currently three years and three months into the recovery from the 2007 2009 recession Three years and three months into the recovery from the 2001 recession which lasted from March to November according to the National Bureau of Economic Research the Flash Index had increased to 104 2 By 39 months after the 1991 recession the Flash read 104 3 The Flash Index performance corresponds to the slow national growth rate that was recently revised downward to 1 3 percent for the second quarter and the continued high unemployment rate Giertz said Illinois unemployment rate in August was 9 1 percent down from 10 2 percent a year earlier This illustrates improvement in the economy but the rate is still extremely high by historical standards Only the corporate tax component of the index was up in real terms compared to the same month last year while individual income and sales tax receipts fell The Flash Index is a weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings consumer spending and personal income Tax receipts from corporate income personal income and retail sales are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated The growth rate for

    Original URL path: http://igpa.uillinois.edu/flash-index/2012/september (2016-02-17)
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  • Flash Index remains unchanged, indicating continued slow growth | Institute of Government and Public Affairs
    last three months after steadily increasing for two years The index indicates that the Illinois economy continues to grow slowly Both the national and Illinois unemployment rate rose slightly in July and GDP growth remains sluggish for this stage of a recovery Slow growth has been the hallmark of the recovery from the 2007 2009 recession the most sluggish since the end of World War II Recessions accompanied by financial crises like the one experienced in 2008 often have similar difficult recoveries said economist J Fred Giertz who compiles the Flash Index for IGPA As has been the case in months past while the rate of growth is now positive it is not strong enough to make much headway in reducing the unemployment rate The number of new jobs is insufficient to absorb new workers and those who have lost their jobs Two components of the index individual income tax and corporate tax receipts were up slightly in real terms compared to the same month last year while sales tax receipts fell by a small amount The Flash Index is a weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings consumer spending and personal income Tax receipts from corporate income

    Original URL path: http://igpa.uillinois.edu/flash-index/2012/august (2016-02-17)
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