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  • IGPA Researchers Find Way Out of Deficit, But Policies May be Too Tough for Struggling State to Handle | Institute of Government and Public Affairs
    most recent analysis for The Illinois Report 2012 IGPA s Fiscal Futures Project team found that maintaining increased income tax rates after they are scheduled to expire and extreme austerity with respect to spending could bring Illinois into fiscal balance by fiscal year 2019 The Illinois Report 2012 will be published in February Click here to read the chapter We have decided to release this chapter of The Illinois Report 2012 ahead of publication because it focuses on the most important problem facing Illinois its fiscal condition said IGPA Director Robert F Rich The work of our team presents an innovative and clear way of examining the state s budget and I believe it is must reading for those interested in addressing this most critical issue The Fiscal Futures Project does not endorse or reject the policy plan The nonpartisan evidence based analysis by researchers Richard F Dye David F Merriman and Nancy Hudspeth is intended to provide information that can assist in the discussions of alternative fiscal plans I think it is important to identify a set of actions with the potential to bring Illinois to fiscal balance said Dr David Merriman co director of the Fiscal Futures Project This identifies a baseline set of actions than can be improved through public debate and political compromise in the hope of finding a less painful and potentially more expedient way to move toward fiscal stability The projections show that the tax increases enacted in January 2011 which are scheduled to phase out in 2015 and the spending cuts that have been made so far have had a positive impact on the deficit The policy choices made thus far have whittled the gap from impossibly large to potentially manageable Dye Hudspeth and Merriman write However it looks as though the tough

    Original URL path: http://igpa.uillinois.edu/content/fiscal-struggle (2016-02-17)
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  • Flash Index Reaches Post-Recession High in December | Institute of Government and Public Affairs
    of Public Leadership Regional Economics Applications Laboratory Flash Index Reaches Post Recession High in December Jan 3 2012 The University of Illinois Flash Index increased to 99 1 in December a new post recession high The results are the highest reading since November 2008 when the index declined to 100 the dividing line between economic expansion and contraction The results ended the year on a positive note reflecting the slow but steady recovery that occurred in 2011 Although the economy is recovering it is likely to continue at a slow pace in the coming year said J Fred Giertz who compiles the index for the Institute of Government and Public Affairs The second half of 2011 was considerably stronger than the first half of the year reducing fears of a double dip recession However predictions for the first half of 2012 suggest a somewhat lower rate of growth said Giertz This will result in a very slow decline in the level of unemployment A sluggish unemployment rate has been a prime feature of the recovery from the 2007 2009 recession After adjustment for the individual and corporate income tax rate increases earlier this year individual income tax and sales tax receipts were down slightly in real terms compared to the same month last year while corporate tax receipts were up This is surprising given the reports of the strong holiday sales season However sales tax receipts for November and December combined were up significantly from last year The Flash Index is a weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings consumer spending and personal income Tax receipts from corporate income personal income and retail sales are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated The growth rate for each component is then calculated for the 12 month period using

    Original URL path: http://igpa.uillinois.edu/flash-index/2012/december (2016-02-17)
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  • Flash Index Increases to Second-Highest Point Since End of Recession | Institute of Government and Public Affairs
    of 98 8 After a slight dip last month the November results reflect the continued slow pace of recovery from the recession reports economist J Fred Giertz who compiles the index for the Institute of Government and Public Affairs This month s results are considerably higher than the same month last year when the index stood at 94 2 This trend reflects a slow but steady improvement over the past 12 months Although Illinois unemployment rate remains above 10 percent the state added more than 30 000 jobs in October Further strong holiday sales may have had an impact on the November index and will be fully reflected in the December reading Giertz said The last few days there has been considerable optimism about the economy based on strong sales at the beginning of the holiday season he said After adjustment for the individual and corporate income tax rate increases earlier this year individual income tax and corporate tax receipts were down in real terms compared to the same month last year while sales tax receipts were up significantly possibly reflecting the beginning of strong holiday sales The Flash Index is a weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate

    Original URL path: http://igpa.uillinois.edu/flash-index/2011/november (2016-02-17)
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  • Research | Institute of Government and Public Affairs
    land and a reduced tax rate on buildings and improvements Dye and co editor Richard W England have found in their work for the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy that the tax can spur urban development and help contain sprawl but its implementation has been sporadic Latest Policy Forum looks at implications of state health insurance regulations for Illinois At various times advocates politicians policy analysts and concerned citizens have recommended reforms of state small group and non group individual health insurance markets The early to mid 1990s was a period in which health care issues rose to the top of federal and state agendas and we appear to be entering another such period of acute interest in expanding health insurance coverage The latest issue of IGPA s Policy Forum looks at this issue IGPA economists comment on 9 percent unemployment rate in Illinois IGPA economists J Fred Giertz and Geoffrey Hewings comment on news that the unemployment rate in Illinois reached 9 1 percent its highest in more than 23 years Giertz left compiles the monthly University of Illinois Flash Index and Hewings directs the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory David Merriman s op ed on Chicago transportation issues appears in Chicago Tribune An opinion article by IGPA professor David Merriman suggests that Chicago would do well to incorporate some of Tokyo s mass transit innovations if the city wishes to land the 2016 Olympics The op ed was published by the Chicago Tribune on Sunday April 6 as members of the International Olympic Committee toured Chicago s proposed Olympic venues Geoffrey Hewings Op Ed on Illinois ecnomic challenges IGPA economist Geoffrey J D Hewings says in an opinion article that Illinois Gov Pat Quinn and the legislature have significant economic challenges to face as they construct a budget for

    Original URL path: http://igpa.uillinois.edu/igpa-research?page=10 (2016-02-17)
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  • U of I Flash Index Increases to Highest Point Since December 2008 | Institute of Government and Public Affairs
    point from where it was for the past three months This is the highest level since December 2008 reports economist J Fred Giertz who compiles the index for the Institute of Government and Public Affairs There is increasing concern that the national economy is headed back into recession the much discussed double dip but the September Flash Index results suggest that this fear may be overblown for Illinois Giertz said The index was at its lowest point 90 0 in September of 2009 The index has shown a trend of slow increase over the past two years but remains below 100 which is the dividing line between expansion and contraction There is always the possibility that the results for a single month may be influenced by transitory factors Next month s index will be important to determine whether the September results reflect a trend Giertz said After adjustment for the individual and corporate income tax rate increases earlier this year all three components of the index individual income tax corporate tax and sales tax receipts were up in real terms compared to the same month last year The Flash Index is a weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate

    Original URL path: http://igpa.uillinois.edu/flash-index/2011/september (2016-02-17)
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  • New IGPA Report on Budget Transparency: How does Illinois Compare? | Institute of Government and Public Affairs
    2010 Seminar 2009 Seminar Study Centers Office of Public Leadership Regional Economics Applications Laboratory New IGPA Report on Budget Transparency How does Illinois Compare September 30 2011 In a new report titled Transparency in State Budgets A Search for Best Practices IGPA experts examine existing studies of state budget transparency by scholars public administration experts and public interest groups See how Illinois ranks in budget transparency compared to other states

    Original URL path: http://igpa.uillinois.edu/content/new-igpa-report-budget-transparency-how-does-illinois-compare (2016-02-17)
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  • Flash Index Indicates Double-Dip Recession Unlikely | Institute of Government and Public Affairs
    Illinois Flash Index moved up an entire point to 97 8 in June a substantial improvement from its May reading and continuing a string of consecutive monthly improvement that began in May 2010 The Flash Index compiled by the Institute of Government and Public Affairs IGPA measures economic activity based upon receipts for personal income corporate income and retail sales taxes The Flash Index reached its highest reading since December 2008 and has increased every month for the last 14 months The index is now approaching 100 which is the traditional dividing line between growth and decline said IGPA economist J Fred Giertz The increase in the index suggests that the much discussed double dip recession is not very likely although the slow recovery from the recession continues Giertz said The June increase in the Flash Index coincides with a surprisingly large increase in the June Midwest Purchasing Managers Index After adjustment for the individual and corporate income tax rate increases earlier this year corporate and sales tax receipts were up in real terms compared to the same month last year while individual income tax receipts were down slightly The Flash Index is a weighted average of Illinois growth rates

    Original URL path: http://igpa.uillinois.edu/flash-index/2011/june (2016-02-17)
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  • IGPA releases computer-generated legislative district map | Institute of Government and Public Affairs
    drawing legislative district boundaries that will be used for elections in the coming decade IGPA has been investigating alternatives that could provide a more transparent and equitable map The resulting computer generated map shows that district boundaries can be more compact while increasing representation of minority populations in the state The map fulfills the rules of redistricting without political gerrymandering Dr Hayri Onal s project Redistricting in Illinois A Systemic Procedure and Nonpartisan Legislative District Plans uses a mathematical computer model to configure districts that divide populations equally for state government districts Onal developed the computer model with graduate student Kevin T Patrick The research team is part the Agricultural and Consumer Economics department at the University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign Onal a professor of agricultural and consumer economics at the University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign and his team also created a computer generated map using 2000 U S census data and compared it to the actual map that was created by the General Assembly The researchers found that the computer model produced a map that was more representative of minority populations more compact and more equally divides the population I think of redistricting as a mathematical challenge Onal said at a presentation on Wednesday May 11 at the Union League Club of Chicago By improving our computer methods our research pushes the boundaries of redistricting A central component of the computer generated map is consideration of minority representation The 2010 census data shows that the black population in Illinois increased slightly while the Hispanic population increased from about 12 to over 15 Onal s model found a way to create five Hispanic majority districts in the Senate and 13 Hispanic majority districts in the House Compared to the current map the black majority districts were maintained in

    Original URL path: http://igpa.uillinois.edu/content/igpa-releases-computer-generated-legislative-district-map (2016-02-17)
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