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  • CRAS-WRF Total Precipitable Water Differences
    for period ending 20121113 00 UTC CRAS WRFX WRFY WRFZ T 00 T 06 T 12 T 18 T 24 T 30 T 36 Page and images last updated around Wed Nov 14 03 21 56 UTC 2012 Other differences

    Original URL path: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras20_MKX/00/val/nam/pwtr.html (2012-11-14)
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  • Verification Bootstrap Confidence Intervals
    the validation region Mean Absolute Error MAE 12 hr Accumulated Precipitation mm Total Precipitable Water mm Total Sky Cover 850 hPa Relative Humidity 700 hPa Relative Humidity Root Mean Square Error RMSE 12 hr Accumulated Precipitation mm Total Precipitable Water mm Total Sky Cover 850 hPa Relative Humidity 700 hPa Relative Humidity Gilbert Skill Score for 0 mm 12 hr Accumulated Precipitation Gilbert Skill Score for 25 mm 12 hr

    Original URL path: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras20_MKX/00/val/nam/index.html (2012-11-14)
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  • Verification Bootstrap Confidence Intervals
    the validation region Mean Absolute Error MAE 12 hr Accumulated Precipitation mm Total Precipitable Water mm Total Sky Cover 850 hPa Relative Humidity 700 hPa Relative Humidity Root Mean Square Error RMSE 12 hr Accumulated Precipitation mm Total Precipitable Water mm Total Sky Cover 850 hPa Relative Humidity 700 hPa Relative Humidity Gilbert Skill Score for 0 mm 12 hr Accumulated Precipitation Gilbert Skill Score for 25 mm 12 hr

    Original URL path: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras20_MKX/12/val/nam/index.html (2012-11-14)
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  • CRAS/WRF Skew-T Comparisons - KINL
    WRF Transition Experiment Forecast Skew T Comparisons All forecast hours against radiosonde observation from KINL

    Original URL path: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras20_MKX/00/val/ncl/skewt-oc.php?sta=KINL (2012-11-14)
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  • GOES-R Proving Ground - Area Forecast Discussions
    THU GIVEN ISOLATED COVERAGE OF LIGHTNING LARGE FIRE GROWTH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS FUELS ARE LIKELY STILL FEELING THE EFFECTS OF LAST WEEKS ABUNDANT RAINFALL THE LATEST ERC AND LIVE FUEL MOISTURE WILL STILL ABOVE AVERAGE AND THAT WAS BEFORE THE RAINFALL THUS STILL A FEW WEEKS AWAY FROM ANY WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS DUE TO LIGHTING OR WIND RH SEASONAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES RIDING THROUGH WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THIS WILL LEAD TO SUBTLE FLUCTUATIONS IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST LIGHT ONSHORE WIND DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT AND GRADUALLY DEEPENING MARINE LAYER SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT NIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH SOME AFTERNOON CLEARING TONKIN AVIATION STRATUS CLOUD DECK REFORMED OVERNIGHT ALONG MOST OF THE REDWOOD COAST AND ALONG THE MENDOCINO COAST SOUTH OF WESTPORT WITH CIGS FALLING TO 200 300 FEET AND VSBY DOWN TO 1 1 2 SM AS OF 1900 UTC THE LAYER IS RECEDING TOWARD THE COAST AND EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING OVER THE BEACHES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING N WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHILE THE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY REFORM AFTER MIDNIGHT IT WILL BE MUCH LESS EXTENSIVE WITH CIGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR SOUTH OF ACV TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF FORT BRAGG INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN CLEAR SMITH MARINE CONTINUED ONGOING FORECAST FOR GALES OVER THE OUTER WATERS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 TO 45 KT BY TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY GUSTS TO 35 WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING FRIDAY THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL SEE LIGHTER WINDS WITHIN 3 5 NM OFF THE BEACHES IN THE MORNING HOURS INCREASING TO SCA IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING STRONGER WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED NEAR CAPE MENDOCINO THE SEA STATE WILL BE DOMINATED BY SHORT PERIOD COMBINED SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 10 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND UP TO 15 FEET OFFSHORE AT AROUND 8 TO 9 SECONDS MODELS INDICATE WINDS DECREASING LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC SMITH EKA WATCHES WARNINGS ADVISORIES CA NONE NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY PZZ450 455 GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY PZZ470 475 VISIT US AT HTTP WWW WEATHER GOV EUREKA FXUS66 KEKA 262159 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 300 PM PDT SUN JUN 26 2011 SYNOPSIS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NW CALIFORNIA TODAY AND TONIGHT LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE REGION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR DISCUSSION FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO AN APPROACHING STRONG UPPER LOW POISED TO REACH THE COAST ON TUESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES 130W FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND A FAVORABLE AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ACCOMPANIED BY A LIGHT STREAM OF NEAR 1INCH PWAT INTO THE CWA THE LOW WILL TRACK SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHWEST CA THEN TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL SIERRA BY WED KEPT SHOWERS AND TSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE TUE BUT FEEL BEST CHANCE FOR NW CA WILL BE MON AFT THROUGH MON NIGHT BEFORE ENERGY CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THIS IS SUPPORTED BY CRAS SIMULATED IR WHICH DEPICTS SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND SPC S PERFECT PROG GUIDANCE FOCUSED OVER THE YOLLA BOLLYS LATE MON BUFKIT ALTHOUGH NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE DOES SHOW SOME BRIEF ELEVATED INSTABILITY LASTING THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS TRINITY COUNTY BUT EVEN IF STORMS FORM MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW APPEARS TO REMAIN STRONG 25 35 KT AND WILL PUSH ANY CELLS RAPIDLY EASTWARD THE MID TO UPPER WINDS MAY BE EVEN TO STRONG PERHAPS SHEARING ANY VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH INITIAL LIGHTING MAY BE DRY STORMS WILL BECOME WET THROUGH TUESDAY AND GIVEN CURRENT FUEL CONDITIONS WHICH ARE STILL BELOW NORMAL IN TERMS OF ERC VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR LIVE FUEL MOISTURE LARGE AND RAPID FIRE GROWTH IS NOT ANTICIPATED DESPITE NEARING JULY TUESDAY THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE COAST THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF HOWEVER KEPT POPS ON THE HIGH END BUT TRIMMED QPF DOWN A BIT STORMS TOTALS STILL AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS WITH UP TO A HALF IN POSSIBLE IN FAVORED AREAS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS INLAND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY DIMINISHING CHANCES INTO WED TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIODS WITH TUESDAY BEING THE COOLEST DAY THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECENT RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK TO SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON BY NEXT WEEKEND TONKIN AVIATION VFR DOMINATES THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NW CALIFORNIA TODAY THE LONE EXCEPTION IS CEC WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE HUNG IN MUCH OF THE DAY IT HAS ONLY BEEN IN THE AFTERNOON THAT CEC HAS MADE IT INTO VFR VFR WILL NOT BE LONG LIVED ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS CEILINGS WILL BE FALLING INTO IFR BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MODELS DO INDICATE VSBY FALLING DEEP INTO IFR AS WELL WHICH SHOULD NOT BE A STRETCH THE MAIN QUESTION FOR CEC AND ACV WILL BE IF THEY END UP IN LIFR AT THIS POINT DO NOT THINK THAT WILL HAPPEN AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER OVERNIGHT THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN IF THE OBS BEGIN TO TREND THAT WAY UKI AND OTHER INLAND LOCATION WILL REMAIN VFR AND ONLY HAVE TO DEAL WITH A VERY HIGH SCT DECK WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING IN BFG MARINE SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS DROPPING BY ABOUT 50 PERCENT YESTERDAY AFTERNOON SEAS WERE IN THE 6 FT RANGE AND THIS AFTERNOON THEY ARE IN THE 3 FT RANGE BUOYS N OF THE CAPE ARE RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 FT WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS AT THE CAPE MENDOCINO WAVE RIDER BUOY WINDS ARE GUSTY AROUND THE CAPE THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS THIS WILL CAUSE LOCALLY HIGHER SHORT PERIOD SEAS IN THE WAKE OF THE MENDOCINO WITH A LACK OF OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WATERS S OF CAPE MENDOCINO CAN REALLY ONLY GO OFF OF MODEL DATA WINDS AT POINT ARENA LIGHTHOUSE HAVE BEEN RUNNING IN THE MID TEENS THIS IS UP AT ELEVATIONS THOUGH WINDS AT THE POINT ARENA DOCK ON THE OTHER HAND HAVE BEEN IN THE SUB 10 KT REALM SHELTER COVE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN MUCH THE SAME AS THE THOSE OF THE POINT ARENA DOCK BUOY 46014 NNW OF POINT ARENA SHOULD BE BACK IN SERVICE SOMETIME IN JULY IN THE MEANTIME MODELS AND ASCAT IT IS THE 19Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF 20 KT WINDS IN THE SRN OUTER WATERS SO MODELS LOOK TO BE PRETTY GOOD AT THIS POINT S SWELL WILL BE OF NOTE IN THE OUTER WATERS AND S OF THE CAPE OVERNIGHT THIS WILL RUN IN THE 3 FT RANGE WITH PERIODS SHOWING AROUND 14 TO 16 SECONDS BEWARE OF POTENTIAL SHOALING HAZARDS WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS DUE TO A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA SHIFTING TO THE E AND AN UPPER LOW MOVING S FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS WILL ALSO BRING A FRONT INTO THE AREA CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE S AND SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MON THIS WILL NOT BE A POTENT FRONT IN TERMS OF WINDS AND SEAS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TOO WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND THEN TO THE N AND INCREASE BY WEEKS END AT THAT POINT WE WILL BE LOOK AT ANOTHER BOUT OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS BFG EKA WATCHES WARNINGS ADVISORIES CA NONE VISIT US AT HTTP WWW WEATHER GOV EUREKA FXUS64 KOHX 190151 AAC AFDOHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 851 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011 UPDATE 00Z SUN KOHX SOUNDING PROFILE CONTINUING TO SHOW OVERALL GOOD PRECIP WATER CONTENT AT 1 59 INCHES ALONG WITH A VARIETY OF GOOD INSTABILITY INDICES S INDICATORS BUT GENERALLY DRY BELOW 600 MB LOOKING AT CURRENT SATELLITE SFC OBS CLEARING SKIES W TO E ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH SOME WEAK CONVECTION NOTED ACROSS MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO ERN AR AND SRN MO NWLY FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT TIME HRS ALSO WITH BEST POSSIBLE STORM TRACK POTENTIAL ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL BRINGING CURRENT ERN KS WRN CNTRL MO CONVECTION TO NEAR NW PORTIONS OF THE MID STAT BY 09Z THEN MOVING CONVECTION EWD AND THEN SWD INTO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION BY 12Z CRAS FORECASTED SAT IMAGERY ALSO BRINGING INTO W PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY 12Z SUN AT LEAST A PLUME OF MOISTURE WHICH IS PRESENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH E TX SE OK W AR CONVECTION EVEN THOUGH NO CONVECTION PRESENTLY ACROSS THE MID STATE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK POINTS TO THE FACT THAT A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET THAT PERSISTENCE OF SEVERAL QUASI LINEAR CLUSTERS IS POSSIBLE THAT MIGHT MOVE INTO THE MID STATE OVERNIGHT WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND WILL GO WITH MOCLR SKIES THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HRS WITH SKIES BECOMING MOCLDY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS UPDATE WORDING OF ISOLATED SHWRS TSTMS EARLY BECOMING LIKELY LATE WILL ALSO ADDRESS WORDING FOR SUN TO REFLECT POSSIBLE MCS IMPACTS ACROSS THE MID STATE BY RAISING POPS AND ADDRESSING MOCLDY SKIES THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HRS PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED 632 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011 UPDATE FOR AVIATION AVIATION 00Z TAFS VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SSW WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER AR MO THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY MOVE SPREAD INTO PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEST GUESS FOR TSRA IS FROM 09Z 15Z AT BNA CSV AFTER THE MORNING STORMS MOVE AWAY LOOK FOR SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH GUSTY SW WINDS TO 25KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON 13 PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED 534 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011 UPDATE WILL MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO TONIGHT S FORECAST WITHIN THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS SHORT RANGE MODELS HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODELS SATELLITE SFC OBS ALL SUPPORTING A SCENARIO SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING TO OUR NW AND MOVING INTO THE MID STATE LATE TONIGHT THUS HAVE DECREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE THRU THE EARLY MORNING HRS WITH SHWRS TSTMS BECOMING LIKELY LATE HAVE ALSO MADE A MINOR TWEAK IN SKY CONDITIONS TO SUPPORT A GENERALLY MOCLDY SKY TREND HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS BREAKS IN CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOWS AROUND 70 MID 60S PLATEAU WITH SLY SWLY SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU THE NIGHTTIME HRS ALSO INCREASED WINDS SPEEDS INTO THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE 31 PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED 239 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011 DISCUSSION SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAS BEEN THE FOCUS OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS A MESOSCALE SYSTEM HAS WORKED ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION SURFACE MAP AT 19Z SHOWS A MESO HIGH OVER THE MID STATE OWING TO WIDESPREAD OUTFLOW WITH THE UPPER FLOW LARGELY ZONAL SPC HAS MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT AND MAY ONCE AGAIN HAVE TO DEAL WITH A MESOSCALE COMPLEX TOMORROW MORNING AS MODELS BRING A MOISTURE BULLS EYE THROUGH THE MID STATE AROUND 12Z GFS MODEL SOUNDING FOR BNA FOR 12Z SUNDAY LOOKS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THIS MORNING S OBSERVED SOUNDING WITH A NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER DEEP MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION AFTERWARDS LOOK FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS THE ATMOSPHERE FINALLY DRIES OUT AND HOT WEATHER RETURNS STILL EXPECTING A COLD FRONT AROUND MID WEEK THAT WILL BRING A PROLONGED CHANCE OF RAIN AND COOLER WEATHER LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND ROSE OHX WATCHES WARNINGS ADVISORIES NONE 31 FXUS63 KDLH 110805 AFDDLH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 305 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2011 DISCUSSION TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS WAS CROSSING FROM C MN INTO N WI AROUND 0730Z QG FORCING ANALYSIS SUGGESTS BROAD AND DEEP SUBSIDENCE WILL QUICKLY SPREAD OVER THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z THIS WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO CLEAR THE AREA FROM NW TO SE AND FOR ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END IN GENERAL 11 00Z UW CRAS MODEL SIMULATED CLOUD COVER AND IR SATELLITE PRODUCTS SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TRENDS SO THAT WAS FOLLOWED DESPITE SUBSIDENCE REGIME SOME MODELS HAVE SOME SPOTTY QPF ON THE ORDER OF 0 01 0 03 INCHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIOR MN ZONES NORTH OF HWY 2 THIS SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SUBTLE SFC PRESSURE TROUGH LOCAL DLH WRF DEVELOPS SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER AND THEN SPREADS THEM INTO NRN MN AFTER 18Z WE FELT THIS WAS WORTH 15 20 PCT POP SMALL POSITIVE BUOYANCY REGION ON FCST SOUNDINGS DOES NOT EXTEND ABOVE 15C SO PROSPECTS OF THUNDER SEEM LOW THERE WILL BE A FEW POSSIBLE ISSUES TO DEAL WITH TONIGHT THE FIRST IS LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FROST THE CLEARING SKIES AND SFC ANTICYCLONE CERTAINLY ARGUE FOR QUICKLY PLUMMETING TEMPS IN THE EVENING HOWEVER MODELS ALSO SHOW THAT THE 925 850MB LAYER LOCKED IN A WEAK WAA PATTERN ALL NIGHT GIVEN THE OPPOSING IDEAS FOLLOWED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE CLOSELY WITH A FEW COOLER TWEAKS IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS LAMP MOS PUTS HYR AND IWD IN THE 36 38F RANGE BY 08Z WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT EVALUATE THE TRENDS IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL STRUCTURE AND CLOUD DISTRIBUTION TO MAKE THE CALL ON ANY LOWER TEMPS OR FROST THE OTHER ISSUE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG CROSSOVER TECHNIQUE IS NOT QUITE IN FOG RANGE ON BUFR SOUNDINGS BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PLEASANT DAY WEATHER WISE WITH RIDGE AXIS KEEPING ANY PRECIP CHANCES WELL WEST IT SHOULD BE DRY AND WARMER MIXING AFTN 850MB AND 925MB TEMPS ON THE NAM AND GFS DRY ADIABATICALLY TO THE SURFACE YIELDS SOME AREAS OF MID UPR 70S MET AND MAV MOS FIGURES ARE BOTH IN THE MID 70S IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE SO HIGH TEMPS WERE BOOSTED EXTENDED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PASSING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH REPLACING THE RIDGE INCREASING WAA MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO MAINLY OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT THE ECMWF SHOWS SURFACE RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER OUR CWA INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEING DISPLACED LATER TUESDAY THIS HIGH SHOULD KEEP BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER OUR WESTERN CWA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ECMWF GEM IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DEVELOPING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE SURFACE LOW FOR THE TUESDAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS COMPARED TO THE GFS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STORMS WILL EXIST THROUGH THAT PERIOD OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE RAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD OVERALL OUTSIDE OF LAKE BREEZES AND ANY STEADIER RAIN AREAS TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE SEASONABLE AVIATION 06Z TAF ISSUANCE CEILINGS AROUND 2500 FT WITH LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS WERE FOUND OVER NRN WISCONSIN EXTENDING NORTH OVER LAKE LAKE SUPERIOR THE MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST IN THIS AREA THROUGH 12Z AFFECTING THE KHYR AND KDLH TAF SITES ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUD DECKS WILL PREVAIL WITH AN ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT CEILINGS AROUND 5 KFT WILL SCATTER FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH SAT MORNING CLEARING SAT EVENING POINT TEMPS POPS DLH 61 45 69 50 10 10 0 10 INL 70 42 75 56 20 20 10 20 BRD 70 47 72 55 10 0 10 20 HYR 64 40 74 51 10 0 0 10 ASX 60 40 69 48 10 10 0 10 DLH WATCHES WARNINGS ADVISORIES MN NONE WI NONE LS NONE SHORT TERM LAMERS EXTENDED MELDE AVIATION GRANING FXUS65 KSLC 051230 AFDSLC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT 630 AM MDT SUN JUN 5 2011 SYNOPSIS A DRY AND MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A PACIFIC STORM MOVES INLAND DISCUSSION DEEPER INSPECTION OF THE LOCAL 12KM WRF NMM SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR TOMORROW MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT AND CACHE VALLEY THE MODEL SHOWS A TROPOPAUSE FOLD CROSSING NORTHERN UTAH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH IS JUXTAPOSED WITH 60KTS OF AVERAGE FLOW WITHIN THE 700 500MB MIX LAYER 4KM CRAS WATER VAPOR SATELLITE FORECAST SHOWS THE FORECAST DRY SLOT PROGRESSING COINCIDENTALLY WITH THE HIGHER POTENTIAL VORTICITY ON THE LOCAL 12KM WRF NMM NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING TO CONSIDER FOR LATER SHIFTS PREVIOUS DISCUSSION WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS RIDGING DOMINATING THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH AN UPPER LOW NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST ASIDE FROM A FEW PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH IT WILL BE A SUNNY DAY A 4C INCREASE IN 700MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN LAST EVENING AND THIS EVENING WILL SUPPORT WARMING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S NORTHERN VALLEYS AND NEAR 100F SOUTHERN VALLEYS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH THE CYCLONE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST BY MONDAY SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 700MB INCREASES TO BETWEEN 40 50KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSES NEVADA DURING THE MORNING AND WESTERN UTAH DURING THE AFTERNOON QUITE A DYNAMIC SITUATION WITH 10DM HEIGHT FALLS MONDAY INSPECTION OF NAM LOCAL 12KM WRF NMM BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP LAYER MIXING UP TO 500MB WHICH IS BELIEVABLE GIVEN THE DYNAMICS LOOKING AT A 700 500MB LAYER AVERAGE OF WINDS WESTERN UTAH COULD EASILY MIX TO 50 70KTS THIS PATTERN FITS THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR A DYNAMIC HIGH WIND EVENT FOR UTAH HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE WESTERN ZONES INCLUDING THE SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS LOOKS LIKE ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE UTAH ZONES WILL NEED A WIND ADVISORY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AS DIFLUENT FLOW INCREASES DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION 21Z SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES INDICATE 40KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN UTAH INTO IDAHO ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH THEN PROPAGATE NNE INTO IDAHO COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH GFS EUROPEAN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE FIRST IMPULSE EXITS BY BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A SECONDARY FEATURE ARRIVING IN DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DURING THE MID WEEK A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW DROPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK HYDROLOGY A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEBER RIVER SYSTEM BELOW ECHO RESERVOIR TO ITS TERMINATION AT THE GREAT SALT LAKE AND LOST CREEK FROM ITS RESERVOIR TO THE CONFLUENCE OF THE WEBER OTHER FLOOD WARNINGS IN EFFECT ARE FOR THE SOUTH FORK OF THE OGDEN AND ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SEVIER RIVER REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS IMPACTS ON ALL FLOOD WARNINGS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND ACCELERATE THE SNOWMELT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH MONDAY THIS WILL REQUIRE VERY CLOSE MONITORING OF AREA STREAMS RIVERS AS SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY THUS FAR THIS YEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS FOR A 72 HOUR PERIOD AVIATION SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT THE SLC TERMINAL INTO THE AFTERNOON THEY SHOULD SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST LATER THAN NORMAL TODAY ABOUT 21 22Z WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF HOLDING OFF UNTIL 23Z WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY FOR A TIME THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BETWEEN ABOUT 16 19Z SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR FIRE WEATHER THE LOW ALONG THE CA COAST WILL MAINTAIN A DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FIRE DISTRICTS TODAY HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN LOW WITH MOST READINGS WELL BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS MOST VALLEYS WINDS JUST TOUCHED CRITICAL VALUES YESTERDAY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER TODAY SO HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE TWO FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE FUELS ARE DEEMED CRITICAL WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY AND SHOULD EXCEED CRITICAL SPEEDS ACROSS MOST AREAS BUT HUMIDITIES MAY NOT DROP QUITE AS LOW IN THESE WESTERN VALLEYS AS THE LOW SWINGS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DISTRICT SO HAVE LEFT THE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY AT THIS TIME HAVE ALSO KEPT THE WATCH FOR THE EASTERN VALLEYS MONDAY ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS MORE LIKE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT IN THAT AREA HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE POOR TONIGHT BUT SHOULD IMPROVE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST MONDAY NIGHT WHILE REMAINING LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE COOLER MORE STABLE AIRMASS SPREADS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM THE ONLY CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS WILL BE ALONG THE IDAHO BORDER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING SLC WATCHES WARNINGS ADVISORIES UT RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING BELOW 6000 FEET FOR UTZ439 440 FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING BELOW 6000 FEET FOR UTZ431 432 438 441 HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR UTZ003 005 015 016 WY NONE PUBLIC HYDROLOGY ROGOWSKI FIRE WEATHER AVIATION WILENSKY FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT HTTP WEATHER GOV SALTLAKECITY ALL LOWER CASE FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION VISIT HTTP WEATHER GOV SALTLAKECITY GENERAL AFD FAQS PHP ALL LOWER CASE FXUS64 KOHX 251559 AAA AFDOHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 1059 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011 UPDATE MORNING ANALYSES DEPICT A 500 MB LOW OVER KS AT 12Z WITH ASSOCIATED 200 TO 300 MB JET MAX LOCATED S OF LOW OVER OK AND N TX AREA MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE E TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT TO S IL AND ONLY BEGIN A NE MOVEMENT LATE TONIGHT THIS WILL SPREAD STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTO OUR AREA TOOK A GANDER AT CRAS MODEL GFS AND NAM PRECIP EFFICIENCY AND GFS NAM AND RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS AND AT THIS TIME ALL SIGNS POINT TO LIKELIHOOD THAT A WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT AT LEAST IN OUR FAR W BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON MESOSCALE MODEL REFLECTIVITIES ALSO SHOW GOOD DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER OUR W AND NW BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON STEEP LAPSE RATES BOTH 700 TO 500 MB AND 850 TO 500 MB PLUS DECENT CAPE IN HAIL GROWTH ZONE SHOW LIKELIHOOD OF A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT LARGE HELICITY VALUES THANKS TO A VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE ALSO MAKE TORNADOES A REAL POSSIBILITY BUT MAINLY IN W PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO SUMMARIZE THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME SEVERE IN THE W PART OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE E PART OF OUR AREA THERE WILL BE MUCH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE INITIALLY SO THAT ONLY LOWER CHANCES OF PRECIP CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER LOW TAKING A MORE NE MOVEMENT LATE TONIGHT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LESSEN AS WIND FIELDS BEGIN TO RELAX SOMEWHAT WILL BEEF UP POPS A TAD TO LIKELY CATEGORY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN FAR W AND NW BUT NOT CHANGE THEM MUCH FOR REST OF AREA PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED 534 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011 AVIATION 12Z DISCUSSION STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES TODAY THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH MIDDLE TN ON THURSDAY BUT PRE FRONTAL TROUGHING WILL BRING A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS AFT 00Z HOWEVER AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST TONIGHT THEY WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME CIGS AND VSBYS WILL FALL WITHIN THE IFR CATEGORY WHEN THE HEAVIER CONVECTION TAKES PLACE PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED 346 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011 DISCUSSION ANALYSIS SHOWING WELL DEFINE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WITH AIRMASS QUITE UNSTABLE SOUTH SIDE ALOFT WEAK ML UL RIDGING OCCURRING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO CLOSED LOW DROPPING INTO KS REGIONAL RADARS QUIET COMPARING PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN IN VICINITY OF PLAINS FEATURES PLAINS SFC UPPER LOWS WILL MAKE SLOW TRACK EAST MOVING OVER MO 00Z THU IL 12Z AND THEN UP TOWARD NORTHERN IN 00Z FRI THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BRING UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION AND ACROSS THE CWA LATER THU ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE AND BETTER UVV WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CWA LATER TODAY BUT MORE SO TONIGHT AND THU THESE FEATURES WILL HAVE PLENTY OF WORK WITH AS CAPES RUN 2000 2500 AND SRH 250 ESPECIALLY EARLY ON THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF STRONG SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LARGELY TONIGHT EARLY THU THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS REALLY WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON AS WHAT LOOKS LIKE PRE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES A FEW STORMS WILL HANG AROUND THU EVENING BUT THEY SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH WRAPPED UP BY FRI MORNING WITH FRONT AND UPPER TROUGHS JUST EAST WHILE FRI EXPECTED TO BE DRY PASSING FRONT GONE RAPIDLY AS SOUTHERLY LL FLOWS RETURNS FRI NIGHT AND ANOTHER BOUNDARY SETS UP JUST NORTHWEST ML UL FLOW GOES BACK WEST AND POSSIBILITY OF ISO SCT DEVELOPMENT OUT WEST RIDING DOWN INTO THE CWA LATE FRI NIGHT EARLY SAT AGAIN ARISES ANY CONVECTION EARLY SAT SHOULD BE IT FOR MOST FROM THAT POINT INTO MID WEEK AS SFC HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE BECOMES DOMINANT SUN AND HOLDS INTO WED SOME MOISTURE DOES SNEAK IN EARLY WED EAST AND THAT MAY POP A FEW ISO STORMS ON THE PLATEAU IN THE AFTERNOON OHX WATCHES WARNINGS ADVISORIES NONE STEIGERWALDT FXUS64 KOHX 010001 AFDOHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 701 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011 MESOSCALE UPDATE SHORT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY HAS WEAKENED DURING THE LAST HOUR WHILE CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP LINE GENERALLY ORIENTED ALONG WESTERN SIDE OF HIGHER THETA E AXIS AND IN THE GRADIENT AREA BOYD PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED 608 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011 UPDATE UPDATED GRIDS ZONES TO REMOVE AFTERNOON WORDING COLD FRONT BACK JUST WEST OF FORT SMITH ARKANSAS 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS UP AHEAD OF FRONT INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MOVING EAST AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP RAPID REFRESH AND CRAS ARE BOTH SLOWER IN BRINGING PRECIP EASTWARD TONIGHT OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME BOYD PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED 337 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011 DISCUSSION MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW THAT CHANGES ARE AHEAD AS A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS COVERS MUCH OF THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEYS THIS MOISTURE IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE HEADING OUR WAY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS STILL LOOKING AT THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY THE ACTUAL FROPA IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT WE WILL GENERALLY SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT BREAK SUNDAY NIGHT ON SUNDAY NIGHT THE PVA INFLUENCE BECOMES MORE NEUTRALIZED SO THAT WE SEE A DECREASE IN CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS IT STRENGTHENS AGAIN ON MONDAY DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND THEREBY BRING A FINAL ROUND OF RAINFALL TO THE AREA OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 3 1 2 INCHES FAR NORTHWEST TO ABOUT 1 INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED AS THE SLT CHC FOR SVR REMAIN TO OUR WEST WILL REISSUE THE HYDRO OUTLOOK ESF BUT WILL INCLUDE ONLY THE WESTERN QUARTER OR SO OF THE MID STATE IN THE EXT FCST A RETURN TO A DRIER REGIME IS INDICATED TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS FOR EARLY MAY OHX WATCHES WARNINGS ADVISORIES NONE 01 FXUS63 KMPX 270837 AFDMPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES CHANHASSEN MN ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 337 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011 DISCUSSION THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE UP OF MICHIGAN IS IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING ATTM SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE TODAY ALONG A FRONT FROM OHIO RIVER VLY INTO CTRL GREAT LAKES AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE KICKS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS SHOULD KEEP MN WI IN MOIST CYCLONIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TODAY WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW GRADUALLY ABATING ON THURSDAY THE RESULT WILL BE A CLOUDY AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE CWA THE NAM AND UW MADISON CRAS MODEL SIMULATED CLOUD COVER PRODUCTS SHOW A FEW SMALL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BUT THE OVERALL THEME IS A PERSISTENT LOW MID CLOUD DECK FOR THOSE REASONS HIGHS WERE TRENDED DOWN FOR TODAY ESPECIALLY IN THE NE HALF OF THE CWA NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SCTD SHOWERS CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON RADAR WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT WITH SFC TEMPS GENERALLY OVER 36 DEGREES THE TREND OF LESSENING THE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF R S MIX WAS CONTINUED FROM WHAT THE EVENING SHIFT HAD ALREADY DONE THERE MAY BE A LULL WITH LOWER COVERAGE INTENSITY OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST SURFACE LOW WEAKENS MODELS SHOW LOW TO MID LVL FGEN INCREASING AGAIN JUST AFTER 00Z AND THIS MAY BE WHEN STEADIER RAIN RE DEVELOPS THE LATEST 4KM WRF RUNS SUPPORT THIS TREND AND EXIT PRECIP FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE CWA ON THURS AM THE NEXT LOW WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY AND PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FRI NGT AND SAT THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE ENTIRE SYSTEM ON THE 00Z RUNS AND SEEM TO POINT TO 06Z TO 18Z SAT AS THE MAIN WINDOW FOR PRECIP THEREFORE THE RELATED GRID EDITS WERE TO BUMP THINGS UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF SRN AND CTRL MN FRI NGT AND TO CUT BACK INHERITED POPS SAT NGT INTO SUN NGT GFS FCST SOUNDINGS HAVE ELEVATED CAPE VALUES OF A FEW HUNDRED J KG SUFFICIENT FOR SOME THUNDER SO THAT WORDING WAS MAINTAINED IN THE GRIDS AJL AVIATION 06Z TAF ISSUANCE THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER EASTERN PORTION OF MN AND WESTERN PORTION OF WI THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING CIGS WILL BE IN THE MVFR RANGE WITH IFR CIGS IN RAIN SNOW THE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING AS LOW DRIFTS EAST WILL KEEP PREVIOUS TREND FOR PRECIP FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS IT IS SCATTERED IN NATURE ALSO THERE IS STILL A THREAT FOR RAIN SNOW MIXED AT KSTC KEAU KMSP KRNH FOR EARLY THIS MORNING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MS MPX WATCHES WARNINGS ADVISORIES MN NONE WI NONE AJL MS FXUS63 KMKX 241839 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE SULLIVAN WI 139 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011 SHORT TERM TONIGHT AND MONDAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER WI TONIGHT THEN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MO AND CENTRAL IL ON MONDAY AND ACROSS LAKE MI ON TUE LOW CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE DENSE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES SOUTHERN WI AND IT WILL BE OVERCAST ON MONDAY THE FIRST 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN WI MON AFTERNOON THE POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET 700MB OMEGA AND 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL COME TOGETHER OVER NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI MON AFTERNOON THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING THE RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON THE GFS TRIES TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS INTO ALL OF SOUTHERN WI EARLIER THAN THE NAM WHICH ONLY BRINGS THE SHOWERS INTO SOUTHWEST WI IT WILL DEPEND ON THE SFC TRACK AND HOW QUICKLY THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN OVERCOME THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE FOR NOW KEPT THE RAIN CHANCE GOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE 18Z 00Z TIME PERIOD TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND 60 INLAND TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE LAKE ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY AS WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EASTERLY AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT THE 12Z GFS AND CRAS CONTINUES TO TREND FASTER THAN THE 12Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF PREFER THE SLOWER MOVEMENT AS TRENDS THAT LAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN CLOSER TO THE SLOWER MODELS ON TUESDAY GFS NAM AND ECMWF HAVE SOMEWHAT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER WISCONSIN OR EASTERN MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY MODELS ALL HAVE COME INTO LINE IN KEEPING THIS UPPER LOW TROUGH NEAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN THE SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES RAPIDLY FROM NORTHERN NEVADA UTAH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AT THE SURFACE THE LEAD LOW MOVES ACROSS MISSOURI MONDAY EVENING AND INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN OR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY MORNING MODEL SPREAD HAS COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE OLDER NAM ECMWF NOW THE FARTHER EAST GFS IS ACTUALLY THE FARTHEST WEST TAKING THE LOW INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY NOON TUESDAY HOWEVER ALL MODELS HAVE A RATHER BAGGY LOW AND NONE REALLY PUSH UP THE WARM SECTOR THEREFORE RAIN COOLED LOW LEVEL AIR IS EXPECTED AND MODELS STILL HAVE VERY WEAK ELEVATED CAPE THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SMALL HAIL POSSIBILITIES OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT NAM TAKES TIL EVENING TO ELIMINATE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND BY THEN MID LEVELS DRY WITH FAIRLY STABLE LAPSE RATES AROUND 4 TO 5C KM ABOVE 850 MB AND 7 5 C KM AT 900 MB THEN A SECOND LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS ARKANSAS TUESDAY MORNING AND MOVES IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY AS IT INTENSIFIES BEFORE REACHING LAKE ERIE AND LAKE HURON WEDNESDAY NIGHT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SHOULD STAY SOUTH AND EAST BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD AFFECT SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN ESPECIALLY ON THE ECMWF AND DGEX MAINLY IN THE COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THURSDAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM NAM GFS AND ECMWF ALL TAKE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE NORTHEAST AND MERGE IT WITH THE OLD UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA THURSDAY MORNING THE ECMWF IS STILL A LITTLE FARTHER WEST AND SLOWER WITH THE RESULTANT UPPER LOW TROUGH SURFACE TROUGH ON THE ECMWF AND DGEX EXTENDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA A LITTLE MORE THAN THE GFS SOME LIGHT QPF ON ECMWF AND DGEX WITH ONLY SPOTTY HUNDREDTHS SEEN ON THE GFS 850 MB RH IS RATHER HIGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND WITH EXPECTED STRATOCUMULUS SHIELD AND COLD UPPER TROUGH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RATHER COOL LONG TERM FRIDAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF FINALLY PUSH THE UPPER TROUGH OFF TO THE EAST AND MID LEVEL RIDGING OCCURS OVER WISCONSIN SURFACE HIGH ALSO MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN SO EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER DAY SATURDAY AND

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  • Index of /cras/arch
    anim 2012110412 gif 04 Nov 2012 08 20 4 1M cras45ak irbt anim 2012110500 gif 04 Nov 2012 20 20 4 1M cras45ak irbt anim 2012110512 gif 05 Nov 2012 08 21 4 1M cras45ak irbt anim 2012110600 gif 05 Nov 2012 20 20 4 2M cras45ak irbt anim 2012110612 gif 06 Nov 2012 08 20 4 1M cras45ak irbt anim 2012110700 gif 06 Nov 2012 20 21 4 1M cras45ak irbt anim 2012110712 gif 07 Nov 2012 08 20 4 1M cras45ak irbt anim 2012110800 gif 07 Nov 2012 20 19 4 2M cras45ak irbt anim 2012110812 gif 08 Nov 2012 08 19 4 2M cras45ak irbt anim 2012110900 gif 08 Nov 2012 20 19 4 1M cras45ak irbt anim 2012110912 gif 09 Nov 2012 08 21 4 1M cras45ak irbt anim 2012111000 gif 09 Nov 2012 20 20 4 0M cras45ak irbt anim 2012111012 gif 10 Nov 2012 08 20 4 0M cras45ak irbt anim 2012111100 gif 10 Nov 2012 20 20 4 0M cras45ak irbt anim 2012111112 gif 11 Nov 2012 08 20 4 0M cras45ak irbt anim 2012111200 gif 11 Nov 2012 20 21 4 0M cras45ak irbt anim 2012111212 gif 12 Nov 2012 08 20 4 0M cras45ak irbt anim 2012111300 gif 12 Nov 2012 20 20 4 1M cras45ak irbt anim 2012111312 gif 13 Nov 2012 08 22 4 2M cras45ak irbt anim 2012111400 gif 13 Nov 2012 20 21 4 2M cras45na irbt anim 2012102312 gif 23 Oct 2012 11 47 4 1M cras45na irbt anim 2012102400 gif 23 Oct 2012 23 45 4 0M cras45na irbt anim 2012102412 gif 24 Oct 2012 11 47 4 1M cras45na irbt anim 2012102500 gif 24 Oct 2012 23 46 4 0M cras45na irbt anim 2012102512 gif 25 Oct 2012 11 47 4 1M cras45na irbt anim 2012102600 gif 25 Oct 2012 23 46 4 0M cras45na irbt anim 2012102612 gif 26 Oct 2012 11 46 3 9M cras45na irbt anim 2012102700 gif 26 Oct 2012 23 43 3 9M cras45na irbt anim 2012102712 gif 27 Oct 2012 11 44 3 9M cras45na irbt anim 2012102800 gif 27 Oct 2012 23 43 3 8M cras45na irbt anim 2012102812 gif 28 Oct 2012 11 39 3 9M cras45na irbt anim 2012102900 gif 28 Oct 2012 23 38 3 9M cras45na irbt anim 2012102912 gif 29 Oct 2012 11 39 4 0M cras45na irbt anim 2012103000 gif 29 Oct 2012 23 38 4 1M cras45na irbt anim 2012103012 gif 30 Oct 2012 11 41 4 2M cras45na irbt anim 2012103100 gif 30 Oct 2012 23 41 4 2M cras45na irbt anim 2012103112 gif 31 Oct 2012 11 40 4 3M cras45na irbt anim 2012110100 gif 31 Oct 2012 23 41 4 2M cras45na irbt anim 2012110112 gif 01 Nov 2012 11 41 4 3M cras45na irbt anim 2012110200 gif 01 Nov 2012 23 40 4 2M cras45na irbt anim 2012110212 gif 02 Nov 2012 11 41 4 2M cras45na irbt anim 2012110300 gif 02 Nov 2012 23 37

    Original URL path: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/arch/ (2012-11-14)
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  • Index of /cras/wrf20gfs_MKX/bufkit
    129K wrf20gfs kinl buf 13 Nov 2012 20 42 129K wrf20gfs klbf buf 13 Nov 2012 20 42 129K wrf20gfs klse buf 13 Nov 2012 20 42 129K wrf20gfs kmke buf 13 Nov 2012 20 42 129K wrf20gfs kmkx buf 13 Nov 2012 20 42 129K wrf20gfs kmsn buf 13 Nov 2012 20 42 129K wrf20gfs kosh buf 13 Nov 2012 20 42 130K wrf20gfs ksgf buf 13 Nov 2012

    Original URL path: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/wrf20gfs_MKX/bufkit/ (2012-11-14)
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  • Index of /cras/wrf20cigb_MKX/bufkit
    130K wrf20cigb kinl buf 13 Nov 2012 20 51 129K wrf20cigb klbf buf 13 Nov 2012 20 51 129K wrf20cigb klse buf 13 Nov 2012 20 51 130K wrf20cigb kmke buf 13 Nov 2012 20 51 130K wrf20cigb kmkx buf 13 Nov 2012 20 51 129K wrf20cigb kmsn buf 13 Nov 2012 20 51 130K wrf20cigb kosh buf 13 Nov 2012 20 51 131K wrf20cigb ksgf buf 13 Nov 2012

    Original URL path: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/wrf20cigb_MKX/bufkit/ (2012-11-14)
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